Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 9.333144 10.723002 12.220029 13.948838 15.886601 17.987847 20.434975
2025-11-30 7.332947 9.221994 11.415346 14.135656 17.403256 21.185441 25.876870
2025-12-07 6.410074 8.541489 11.136772 14.501806 18.718698 23.795217 30.332103
2025-12-14 5.461783 7.682886 10.509481 14.326815 19.297514 25.495610 33.745504
2025-12-21 4.567569 6.753385 9.649577 13.707448 19.175378 26.208552 35.845347
2025-12-28 4.186997 6.460301 9.577421 14.082027 20.327437 28.569176 40.133198
2026-01-04 3.830067 6.151635 9.438687 14.327115 21.284677 30.683429 44.157619
2026-01-11 3.424083 5.722857 9.082160 14.220061 21.720838 32.083927 47.249304
2026-01-18 3.066700 5.326421 8.730425 14.077547 22.073403 33.356156 50.187142
2026-01-25 2.792524 5.029447 8.496491 14.079723 22.615973 34.897055 53.541092
2026-02-01 2.576943 4.803555 8.348549 14.191653 23.311349 36.668913 57.276332
2026-02-08 2.345483 4.526603 8.094123 14.112378 23.699340 37.991260 60.391029
2026-02-15 2.119617 4.240938 7.808691 13.972254 23.997208 39.211565 63.439615
2026-02-22 1.961060 4.058463 7.678719 14.072107 24.671654 41.022875 67.440960
2026-03-01 1.869389 3.987760 7.729902 14.468775 25.831133 43.612073 72.705822
2026-03-08 1.693277 3.739451 7.450606 14.282782 26.022956 44.692009 75.672463
2026-03-15 1.473794 3.382520 6.946682 13.668993 25.461562 44.542611 76.691991
2026-03-22 1.411878 3.334087 7.001206 14.041221 26.578088 47.120114 82.112528
2026-03-29 1.337980 3.253116 6.987434 14.286215 27.482345 49.379357 87.091423
2026-04-05 1.227645 3.083249 6.789994 14.179241 27.762278 50.613519 90.440581
2026-04-12 1.123566 2.915412 6.582383 14.037150 27.967166 51.721716 93.609745
2026-04-19 1.044049 2.793628 6.456172 14.039296 28.426200 53.268549 97.548210
2026-04-26 0.981910 2.704950 6.389804 14.150956 29.085880 55.175841 102.144560